Judging from the experience of US stocks for a long time or slow cow, the Fed’s expected management ability should be a factor that is indispensable.Policy -driven policies were one of the important trigger factors before the quarter, so the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on the weekend seemed very important.
Throughout the specific content of the press conference, it is very detailed and specific.Although this conference did not announce the specific amount and time arrangement of a new round of fiscal stimuli, the person in charge of the Ministry of Finance proposed "please rest assured" and "the biggest measures for supporting debt in recent years."Waiting for the statement, not only transmitting clear confidence to the capital market, but not to cause favorable concerns.Hyderabad Stocks
It should be said that objectively, this press conference is very important for the expected management and expected guidance of the capital market. Even the most pessimistic investors will not be empty again.With reference to the rapid plunge in the rapid rise in each wave of the history, the market may be stabilized after a large and faster decline in the current market, and the market may be stabilized.
We suggested in the last issue that the biggest difference between this round of rising and historical bull markets is that the volume is too fast, which makes the chip structure in the process of rising not good, which has caused the recent trend to be very unstable and even significantly call back.This adjustment caused by the unstable chip structure needs to be completed by vibration.
Based on historical experience, if the transaction volume can be maintained between 2.3 trillion in the next period of time, then
It is expected to organize a better chip structure within 2-3 weeks.If you can have a clearer or super -expected policy favorably or the marginality of the fundamental dimension, maybe the market can have a new and sustainable rising opportunity.
In other words, under the current benign expected management, the "rising trilogy" we have recently proposed may still appear in the third chapter.It is the best assistant for slow cows.
Risk Tips: Models constructed according to historical information and data may fail when market changes.
October 12, 2024
It is the best assistant for slow cows
Key points in this issue: expected management is the best assistant for slow cows
Financial engineering regular report
Securities Research Report
SAC practice certificate number: S02
Lin Rongxiong analyst
SAC practice certificate number: S01
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1. Points of the market in this issue: expected management is the best assistant for slow cows 3
2. Market judgment related logic 4
Figure 1. Shanghai Composite Index-cyclical analysis -2024.10.124
Fig
Figure 3. Time-selection system all-weather -2024.10.124
Figure 4. Four-wheel drive industry rotation model -2024.10.125
The last issue of the three typical stages of the rising process of the bull market last time was called the "rising trilogy", and it was believed that the market may soon enter the second stage. At present, it is basically in line with expectations.
1. Points of the market in this issue: It is expected to manage it is the best assistant for slow cows
Judging from the experience of US stocks for a long time or slow cow, the Fed’s expected management ability should be a factor that is indispensable.Policy -driven policies were one of the important trigger factors before the quarter, so the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on the weekend seemed very important.
Throughout the specific content of the press conference, it is very detailed and specific.Although this conference did not announce the specific amount and time arrangement of a new round of fiscal stimuli, the person in charge of the Ministry of Finance proposed "please rest assured" and "the biggest measures for supporting debt in recent years."Waiting for the statement, not only transmitting clear confidence to the capital market, but not to cause favorable concerns.
It should be said that objectively, this press conference is very important for the expected management and expected guidance of the capital market. Even the most pessimistic investors will not be empty again.With reference to the rapid plunge in the rapid rise in each wave of the history, the market may be stabilized after a large and faster decline in the current market, and the market may be stabilized.
We suggested in the last issue that the biggest difference between this round of rising and historical bull markets is that the volume is too fast, which makes the chip structure in the process of rising not good, which has caused the recent trend to be very unstable and even significantly call back.This adjustment caused by the unstable chip structure needs to be completed by vibration.
Based on historical experience, if the volume of transactions can be maintained between 2.3 trillion in the future, it is expected to organize a better chip structure within 2-3 weeks.If you can have a clearer or super -expected policy favorably or the marginality of the fundamental dimension, maybe the market can have a new and sustainable rising opportunity.
In other words, under the current benign expected management, the "rising trilogy" we have recently proposed may still appear in the third chapter.It is the best assistant for slow cows.
2. Market judgment related logic
Figure 1. Shanghai Composite Index-cyclical analysis -2024.10.12
Source: SDIC Securities Research Center compiled
Fig
Source: SDIC Securities Research Center compiled
Figure 3. Time-selecting system-20124.10.12
Source: SDIC Securities Research Center compiledLucknow Wealth Management
Figure 4. Four-wheel drive industry rotation model -2024.10.12
Source: SDIC Securities Research Center compiled
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