Numbers cannot explain everything
But everything requires numbers to prove.
—— Hungarian mathematician Photinakoli Chas
This is the 761st original article, the full text is 7700 words.
Money · logic · Anti -human, butcher wishes everyone good night.
It is about to end in 2023, and it is time to update the logic of the half -day combination.
The logic of the 2024 version of the Sakura Monkey is divided into four chapters:
"" Start with basic logic, introduce the ideas, genres and cases of asset allocation.
"The overall layout of the plan, the goals, ideas and variety selection of the strategy
"" Focus on actual operation, design strategic warehouses, adjustment, and re -balance rules
"Tools" sort out selection, summarizes strategy selection methods and fund lists
"Musical Instrument" is the last chapter of the 2024 edition.The content includes:
The "internal" and "external" of the index fund are different
"ETF" and "Index Fund" are not the same concept.
Speak more accurately-
ETF is a subset of the index fund, which refers to "open index funds listed and traded on the exchange".
ETF is the "Exchange Index Fund".Everyone in Alipay, Tiantian Fund, and WeChat financial management are contacting the "Outside Index Fund".
Just one word, the difference is very large.
%Of the on -site funds are invested in index component stocks, and less than 95%of the off -site index funds invest in index component stocks.
Why is there such a difference?
Because ETFs on the field are "one basket of stocks" –
Fund companies split a basket of stocks into several parts to facilitate circulation, and all the purchases and redemptions in the market are exchanged for a basket of stocks.
Buying or selling on exchanges is a transaction between investors. Fund companies do not need to reserve cash, so ETFs on -site ETFs can be used 100%for tracking.
OTC Index Fund is not ———
Outdoor purchase and redemption are cash settlement, which is a transaction between investors and fund companies.
According to relevant regulations, off -site funds must reserve more than 5%cash to cope with redemption.*
*Butcher Note: OTC Fund needs to reserve cash to cope with redemption. This is one of the knowledge points of the fund practitioners’ qualification examination.What I want to talk about is that a snowball V, which has started with the "Sweeping Monk" — his Snowball Award won a prize article that retaining 5%of cash in the OTC -linked fund is "the fund manager’s preference for cash."Obviously, the award -winning celebrity knows nothing about the fund industry.Such articles can also be awarded.You can think about who Snowball will lead you …
Obviously, 100%invests in the index of ETF in the index on the off -site index fund that is less than 95%of the off -site index funds to track the index.
There are two typical branches of the off -site index fund:
Whether it is ETF linkage, index enhanced fund, or other off -site index funds, the positions investing in the index cannot reach 100%. The tracking error must be greater than the ETF in the field, so it is not the first choice for asset allocation.
The disadvantages of off -site index funds are far more than these:
Many varieties are only on the scene, not off -site -for example, the new Nikkei 225 included in Half -2024 version.
Outdoor transactions are 20 times higher than on -site transactions -0.02%on -site transactions, and 0.40%of off -site purchases and redemptions.
QDII’s off -site stocks will be affected by restrictions on purchase and suspension due to foreign exchange restrictions -stocks directly traded on -site trading are completely unlimited.
The many inconveniences of the off -site index fund have been explained in detail, and I won’t go into details here.
When the investment portfolio was started, the butcher did not know how far this strategy could go, so he just used the off -site index fund to save trouble.
The half -day strategy has come to this day, it has been more than five years.The amount of funds is getting larger and the cost and cost of off -site are becoming more and more obvious.
This year, I had a lot of discussions with my classmates. Under the advice of Xuewu, I decided to let Sakyama hug ETF in the field.
So is the off -site index fund useful?
The unit price of each bond index fund in the exchange ETF is usually around 100.
On -site transactions are 100 shares per hand, so the minimum transaction amount of the bond index ETF on -site transactions is tens of thousands of shares.
"Tens of thousands of transactions" is not convenient for re -balance. The trading costs of on -site and off -site bond index funds are small, so the bond asset butchers preferential use of off -site funds.
In short: ETFs are mainly on the field, supplemented by off -site index funds.
The difference between ETF and off -site index funds in the field is as follows.Click to enlarge.You can save them for future reference:
(Someone once asked, "Why don’t you use the index to enhance", but no one asked in the past two years …)
Why do you perform the same index but perform poorly?
"We lock the investment type: index fund through the" sustainable "principle.
In the "Tools", we narrowed the scope to "in -field ETF -based, supplemented by off -site index funds".
But this scope is still very large.There are too many index funds corresponding to the same index.Can it be further screening?
The answer is yes.
Investing with the same index but obtaining different returns is caused by four factors:
If you want to get better returns, you must use four factors as the screening criteria to choose a fund carefully.
I have written too many times, so this time I put a summary table for everyone to save the future reference:
Before the regular balance is regularly balanced every year, Buqu will do a "fund inventory" and "physical examination" of the composition of the half -day investment portfolio.
If you find that holding funds are not qualified in these four aspects, or have better choices under the same index, then it is time to consider changing this fund.
The recent medical examination records are all available. The next inventory is expected to be re -balanced from April to May.
2024 half -day fund list
Having said so much, let’s take a look at the funds of version 2024-
(Yellow -bottomed body = preferred variety, black background black = alternative variety, "none" = no outside variety)
We start with the largest proportion of stock assets.
As "" said, these 45%of the distribution logic is–
20%Oriental camp, 20%Western camp, 5%third -party camp.
[Low A shares’ dividend fluctuations] is a choice to deal with uncertain domestic economic prospects.
Everyone also saw that the worst performance was the "three brothers in China".Surat Investment
The index chooses the largest ingredient stock based on the market value, but "large scale" does not mean "good performance".
We are optimistic about the long -term development of the motherland, but we need to choose the investment target more carefully.This year, we first used Smart Beta instead of the extensive index.
The dividend and low fluctuation index will screen out high dividends and low fluctuation stocks to help us retain a good company that is truly "quiet".This is the safest choice in the current environment.
For a detailed analysis of this variety, you can refer to the research report I wrote in ""-"
——The content includes low fluctuation factors excess returns, multiple dividend and low volatility solutions analysis, performance comparison and performance attribution, etc., here will not be launched.
[Hong Kong Stock Connect Hang Seng ETF] is an excellent Chinese assets denominated in the US dollar.
The Hang Seng Index contains a large number of outstanding mainland companies listed in Hong Kong.Not only supplement the A -share index, but also hedge the risk of RMB exchange rate.
This variety continues to use the traditional Hang Seng index temporarily.First, the butcher has no confidence in Smart Beta produced by the Hang Seng Index.second –
Hong Kong has the history of stable fund rescue.The Hang Seng Index is saved, and India saves the ETF of the central enterprise technology.The Taiwan Strait must be treated differently.
For detailed analysis, please refer to the research report I wrote in "" ——
——The content includes the preparation plan of the Hang Seng Index, the types of component stocks and investment value, and the "difference between Hang Seng ETF and Shanghai -Hong Kong Stock Connect Hang Seng ETF", which are not discussed here.
[Nasdaq] is the vanguard of listed companies in the United States.
Global investment cannot avoid the US stock market, and there is no need to avoid it, because companies listed here are indeed excellent.(Note: American listed） American company)
In order to maintain a simple investment portfolio, US stock representatives chose the Nasdaq 100. The index technology stock content is high and does not include financial stocks.
The US banking crisis is not far behindHyderabad Investment. Artificial intelligence has been in the ascendant. In the past ten years, we have continued to win the S & P 500 Index ..Lucknow Stock. These facts are enough to support us to continue choosing it.
[Japan Stock Market Nikkei Index] is a new member incorporated to deal with globalization.
This variety was issued by fund companies as early as 2020, but so far, it is only inside and there is no outside the court.
The idea of Nikkei 225 began in the transfer of the US manufacturing industry: low -tech parts flow to Mexico, and high -tech parts flow to Japan.
Coupled with the adjustment of Japanese economic policies and the improvement of Japanese listed companies’ dividend payment, this variety is becoming more and more attractive.
As for "Buffett’s investment in Japan", it is only the "result" brought by the above "reasons".
[Indian Fund LOF] is the choice of responding to the new situation.
Have you been to India?
I have been there.
In 2012, I was a large power outage site in India.
Living in the rich area with bright lights, watching the bright slums is a scene that I will never forget.
Buqu personally has a lot of negative views on India, but he has to admit that this country is becoming more and more important in the global economy.
This country takes over a large amount of capacity we lose, but it is not considered "West".It can be said that it is a special "third -party camp".
In recent years, the Indian stock market has reached a record high.This time we will test the market at a range of 5%, hoping not to become a "high -level takeover".
In addition, Indian Fund LOF is FOF invested in the MSCI India index.There are double fees, and management fees are also expensive.
But there is no alternative yet, and in recent years, it has indeed helped investors to make money, so use it first.
Let’s take a look at bond assets and cash assets.
"" Explains that bond assets only choose "interest rate bonds": While avoiding credit risks, they can get higher returns than Treasury bonds than the same period.
For bond assets in the investment portfolio, choose a variety with a long period of time to obtain higher long -term returns; for the pure cash for zero interest rates with a short period of cash assets, a variety with a short period of time instead of zero interest rate.
For interest rate bonds, national bonds (sovereign bonds) or policy financial bonds (quasi -sovereign bonds) can usually be selected.The latter’s interest rate is higher than the former of the same period, and the risks are almost different, so priority is given to political and financial bonds.
There are many types of domestic political and financial bonds, which are mainly issued by State Development Bank, Indian Agricultural Development Bank and import and export banks.It is not much different for ordinary investors.It mainly depends on the bond period and capital interest rate.
》》 There is also a survey on domestic interest rate bonds-
——The content includes factors affecting interest rate bond returns, hot interest rate bond funds reviews, analysis of interest rate analysis of a certain interest rate bond, etc., here will not be launched.
In addition, although there are bond index ETFs in the market, as described in Section 1-
The price of Bond Index ETF is generally 100+ yuan, and the exchanges have a single transaction amount of tens of thousands.It is inconvenient to re -balance, so the butchers will give priority to the use of diplomacy.
In addition, look at the bond index ETF, the size of the 30 -year Treasury bond ETF is not large, it may lack liquidity during transactions, or may encounter additional friction costs brought by a large discount premium, which requires higher transaction experience.
In addition to the inconvenience mentioned in the first section, the bond exchange trading fund also has its own advantages.
On the one hand, the term of 30 -year Treasury Bond ETF is far from the period of the existing political financial bond index ETF.
Due to the term premium, the longer the bond term, the higher the long -term yield (the greater the risk).
On the other hand, the rate of on -site products is still lower than off -site products, so saving money can make money.
Third -the greater the amount of funds, the greater the difference in cost, and the more obvious the income gap is.
If your half -day investment portfolio exceeds 500,000, you can consider the two on -site ETFs in the table.
All funds of the entire half -day investment portfolio can be managed on the brokerage APP, which is more convenient.
Finally, alternative investment is gold and crude oil.
"" Covers the general logic of the two: one is to fight malignant inflation, and the other is to decentralize the risk of assets.
These two varieties, "" has been discussed in detail- ——
——The content includes the differences between Mumbai’s gold ETF and Gold ETF, why can’t you buy a crude oil commodity fund, the oil industry index fund comparative analysis, etc., will not be repeated here.
Recerity results: crushing, crushing …
Just like the "Jianchang/additional position/reducing position" in "", the next two quarters are also new, because there are too many people asking.
Previously, due to the limited data source, tools and energy, there was no recovery for half a day, and the new version of the logic could not receive the support of historical data.
A few years have passed, and now there are simpler tools, which can be supported as data of the logic of the new version.Jaipur Stock
Some things need to say in advance:
First of all, the butcher’s serious dependence on data to make decisions, but they still kept vigilant about the "retrospective test".
"Recerity" can only exclude the "wrong answer", but it cannot tell us the "correct answer".
Good recovery performance means "there is no enough evidence to prove that it is not good", but it does not mean that "the future will be good."
It is highly recommended "", this article completely explains the tricks of Da V and fund companies with the "recovery" to deceive people.
Secondly, the recovery tool is "Lei Qian", and the butcher is not responsible for the reliability of its data.
Strictly speaking, there are many disadvantages of this tool: re -balance can only be carried out regularly, there is no threshold, the data does not marked the source, and some data have problems (such as no risk yield rate) …
But its advantages are simple and fast results.Quantitative numbers are not necessarily accurate, but the qualitative results have reference value, that is, the conclusion of "A greater than B" can be used.
Due to the different statistics and positioning time, the recovery data is not comparable to the real transaction records.Don’t worry about "why the 2021 version is stronger than the real transaction half a day", just pay attention to the comparison in the recovery test.
Third, it is limited by the time and data of the fund’s establishment and data, and there are errors in the recovery.
Some funds in the group were established after 2019 and had no historical data before. Therefore, the statistical period of this return test was "the last three years", that is, December 1, 2020 to December 1, 2023.
In addition, the 2024 version of the Nasdaq index is a newly established "low interest rate killer", with fewer historical data, so it can only be replaced with the same model of the 2021 version for recovery.
Now please take a deep breath and say a question silently:
If we return to the end of 2020,
Use the logic of version 2024 directly,
In the past three and a half years, what results have you achieved?
Jinnai Wealth Management