In recent years, the touted Indian stock market and the Indian economy ushered in a new change in June: on the one hand, the Indian stock market suffered a sharp fluctuation at the beginning of the month, and the market once fell 8%, the largest decline in four years; on the other hand, India, India, India, India, India, IndiaAlthough Prime Minister Modi won the election, his support rate was unexpectedly lower than expected.In the past three years as of the end of April this year, the MSCI India Indian Index, which is denominated in the US dollar, increased by about 12.5%per year, led the MSCI global index of 2%.The dazzling performance of the Indian stock market stems from the optimistic emotions of international investors in the Indian economy.But is the Indian economy in great reputationMumbai Investment?Can the Indian economy "take off" in the future?Guoabong Wealth Management
There are many voices in India’s economy internationally.According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the GDP of India (GDP) in 2025 will reach US $ 433.98 trillion, exceeding Japan’s US $ 4.313 trillion, rising to the fourth world in the world.IMF predicted that India’s GDP would surpass Japan in 2026 in October 2023.But now the weakening of the yen has caused the Japanese GDP to shrink after the replacement of the US dollar, which makes India surpass Japan one year earlier than expected.It is worth mentioning that Japan’s GDP was surpassed by Germany in 2023, and it would fall to fifth in the world if it was surpassed by India.
On June 11, the World Bank also stated in the latest "Global Economic Outlook" that although India’s economic growth rate is expected to slow down in 2024, it will still be the fastest economy in the world.With the support of strong domestic demand and surge in investment, India, the country with the largest population in the world, will grow by 6.6%this year. Although it is less than 8.2%in 2023, it will still drive South Asia to become the global economic growth rate with high -speed growth.Fast area.Goldman Sachs proposed in the latest report that India’s economic growth momentum is still strong, and it has raised India’s economic growth forecast in 2024 by 10 percentage points to 6.7%.India’s investment growth is expected to continue. As the dividend transfer of Indian Reserve Bank is higher than expected, the additional fiscal space of infrastructure expenditure will be supported.
Objectively speaking, compared with the "crumbling" Indian economy when Modi took over 10 years ago, the current progress of the Indian economy is obvious to all.In 2014, the Indian party led by Modi came to power. In the 10 years of ruling, India jumped into the fifth largest economy in the world second only to the United States, China, Japan, and Germany.According to the World Bank’s data, even if the GDP growth rate of India is 5.8%affected by the 2020 epidemic, its annual growth rate of GDP from 2014 to 2022 reached 5.7%.In addition to the growth rate of GDP and foreign direct investment in the "Modi Economics", the overall rising trend of foreign direct investment is on the rise, and there are also signs of moving towards India in important global industries such as electronic manufacturing and semiconductors.
In addition, Modi’s efforts in the digital revolution are also remarkable.For example, the promotion of digital governance has begun to change the lives of some poorest people in India.Today, Indians living in the most remote corner can buy many daily necessities without cash.In addition, in recent years, India has successfully hosted the G20 summit and the lander equipped with a lunar car has successfully landed on the surface of the moon, and dozens of "unicorn" was born … These have also been placed in the Indian economy."Phnom Penh".
However, the "thorns" in front of the Indian economy are also obvious, and these may become a drag that hinders the "take off" of the Indian economy.For example, it is difficult to create employment opportunities. It has always been the "tumor" of the Indian economy.According to the latest data from the International Labor Organization, India’s educated young people have increased from 54.2%in 2000 in 2000 to 65.7%in 2022.According to data calculated by the well -known development economist Jean Drez, the actual salary of India has not increased significantly since 2014.The World Bank regional economist has recently said that India may waste its population dividends -the economic growth potential brought by a large number of labor -age population.New Delhi Stock Exchange
In September 2014, Modi proposed the "Indian Manufacturing" strategy to build India as a manufacturing country.In 2020, the Indian government issued a $ 25 billion incentive measure to companies in semiconductor, mobile electronics and other industries to improve India’s manufacturing capabilities.But to date, the effect is quite embarrassing. In the past 10 years, the share of Indian manufacturing has still stagnated.At the same time, the current growth rate of private consumption expenditures in India is 3%, which is the slowest in 20 years, but family debt has touched a record high.
From a certain perspective, India’s high economic growth is not balanced -the rich people are booming, but the poor are struggling.Based on the overall level, India may be the fifth largest economy in the world, but according to the per capita, it is still ranked 140th.Anbab Metra, an Indian consumer brand, proposed that in India, luxury brand companies producing cars, watches and alcoholic brand companies have grown faster than more popular companies.The insufficient learning ability of Indian children will also become an obstacle to the rapid economic growth of India.Some reports show that India’s 14th to 18 -year -old population cannot read simple texts fluently; the new crown epidemic has caused a significant blow to Indian students. They have been unable to go to school in the past two yearsNagpur Stock. The Indian government has funds for education and healthcare.Still insufficient.
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